Ealing Southall Result

Majority 5,070

Sedgefield Result

Sedgefield
Phil Wilson, Labour 12528
Greg Stone, Liberal Democrats 5572
Graham Robb, Conservative 4082
Andrew Spence, BNP 2494
Paul Gittins, Independent 1885
Toby Horton, UKIP 536
Chris Haine, Green Party 348
Tim Grainger, Christian Party 177
Stephen Gash, English Democrats 177
Alan Hope, OMRLP 147
Norman Scarth, Anti Crime 34

Majority 6956

A message from John Cartwright (Loony candidate in Ealing Southall)

There seems to be some confusion about how many votes Alan Hope got in Sedgefield.

Alan confirms that he got 129.

Having checked a recording of the declaration, he was given 147 votes.

The Council website has not published the result yet so we will have to wait and see...

Why Brown should be reeling over Ealing

Times online-comment by William Rees-Mogg

23 July 2007

Last week’s by-election results were satisfactory for Labour, excellent for the Liberal Democrats and a disaster for the Conservatives. That was the almost unanimous verdict of the weekend’s press, except for Alan Watkins in The Independent on Sunday, who warned Gordon Brown against an early election. This general assessment is not likely to be overturned, but it is mistaken. Although Labour held two of its safer seats, these by-election results should be regarded as satisfactory for the Conservatives, excellent for the Lib Dems and very bad for Labour.

The best way to judge by-election results is by the changes in the parties’ share of the votes since the previous general election. On this basis, the Lib Dems plainly did best, and Labour worst. In Ealing, the Lib Dems gained a 3.5 per cent share of the vote and 7.8 in Sedgefield; the Conservatives gained 0.9 per cent in Ealing and 0.1 in Sedgefield. Labour lost 7.2 per cent in Ealing and 14.4 per cent in Sedgefield.

Despite relatively buoyant opinion polls, the Labour Party is still unpopular at the ballot box. If one takes the average of the two by-elections, Labour’s share of the vote has fallen by 10.8 per cent since the general election; the Conservative share has risen by 0.5 per cent and the Lib Dem has risen by 7.8.

The results of by-elections are usually very different from those of subsequent general elections.

Nevertheless, one can use the Rallings and Thrasher guide to calculate the results of a theoretical general election in which the swing of votes matched the by-elections. On that hypothesis, the Conservatives would be the largest party, with 281 seats, Labour would hold 243 seats and the Lib Dems would have 93. From the Conservative point of view that would not be a bad result, but for Labour it would be a disaster.

How could this be? Such a result could arise because the Conservatives are in second place in many more Labour seats than the Lib Dems. If voters switched from Labour to Lib Dem, as they did in both these by-elections, that could reduce the Labour vote below the level of the Conservative. One can see how big this effect could be. In the 100 most marginal Labour seats, all of which could be won on a swing of 6 per cent, the Lib Dems came second in only 13, but the Conservatives came second in 84.

If one adds in the by-election swings, Labour would actually have fallen below the Lib Dem share of the national vote, by 29 to 25 per cent; the Conservatives would have 34 per cent. There are good reasons for thinking that this puts the Lib Dems too high – they are almost always flattered by by-election results. In the two latest opinion polls, the Lib Dem share comes only to 15 per cent. That is almost certainly too low. In mid-term, the Lib Dems are starved of the oxygen of publicity, and almost always record artificially low polling figures.

Mr Brown has to make a decision whether to call a spring election – the autumn seems less likely. He might discount the scale of Labour’s by-election loss in share of votes as normal in safe seats. However, he cannot safely afford to discount the strong appeal of the Lib Dems to Labour voters. In both these by-elections many previously Labour voters must have voted Lib Dem; the Tory share of the vote remained stable in both constituencies. The Lib Dems achieved their good results despite grumbles about their leader, Sir Menzies Campbell, who had a successful campaign. They also overcame the Brown bounce. If one takes the by-elections rather than the opinion polls, an early election would be liable to overturn Labour’s overall majority. Mr Brown will not want to take that risk.

In these by-elections, the Lib Dems did win Labour votes, but did not take votes from the Conservatives. I think this reflects a reality in current opinion. The Conservative vote is probably the most solid – there are certainly a lot of Conservative voters who want to get Labour out; they believe it is time for a change. At the margin, Labour voters are more wobbly, but they may be likely to vote Lib Dem rather than switch straight to the Conservatives. For the present, the Lib Dem opportunity is on the left.

In the Conservative Party, it is not the voters who are panicking but a fringe element of anonymous and unimpressive backbenchers. David Cameron had gone a long way towards making the Conservatives electable. There is no plausible alternative leader, except for William Hague; he enjoys great confidence in the party precisely because he does not want the job. After all, he has experienced what it is like to be Leader of the Opposition and found it to be a bed of thistles. There is no alternative strategy; the Conservatives must stay where the votes are, and that is in the centre.

The Ealing by-election had another significance. The Conservatives used it to make two declarations, that they were genuinely a multiracial party and a London party. These are big assertions, vital for the Tory future. The widespread support for Boris Johnson as the candidate for mayor means that the mayoral election will be a vital prelude to the next general election. It will be a clash of charismatic celebrities. Boris Johnson himself will be the most charismatic Old Etonian to fight a London election since Charles James Fox fought Westminster in 1784. If he defeats Ken Livingstone, that will help to create the momentum for Mr Cameron to win a general election in 2009. Boris is, of course, a high-risk candidate; so was Fox.

As soon as he is selected, Boris Johnson, who is a self-directed missile, will have a big impact on Conservative policy, second only to that of David Cameron. If Boris wants a housing or a police policy for London – as he must – that will shape Conservative housing or police policy nationally. Boris will be a very big figure in his party – and they know it. The Conservative strategy now is to win London next May and then win a general election in 2009. That is the strategy Gordon Brown has to counter.

MPs Call On Cameron To Resign

Sky News

Several Conservative MPs are calling for David Cameron to resign and are demanding a vote of no confidence.

According to The Sunday Telegraph, as many as six have written to the chairman of the 1922 Committee.

It follows months of dissent over his modernising strategy.

The newspaper report did not name any of the MPs supposedly involved, and aides indicated that it was not being taken seriously by the party leadership.

But its appearance will add to the pressure on Mr Cameron following a string of poor polls and the party's third place in this week's by-elections in Sedgefield and Ealing Southall.

A vote would automatically be triggered if letters were received from 15% of the parliamentary party - currently 29 MPs - as happened when Iain Duncan Smith was ousted as leader in 2003.

There is no prospect of that threshold being reached but any letters would indicate a level of concern on the Tory backbenches about the direction in which Mr Cameron is taking the party.

Discontent with his approach surfaced in the recent row over grammar schools, which saw Altrincham MP Graham Brady quit the frontbench in protest.

And there were criticisms of Mr Cameron's handling of the Ealing Southall by-election from some Tories.

Westminster MP Mark Field publicly criticised the campaign for alienating ethnic minorities in the constituency.

Mr Cameron's espousal of causes like climate change and social responsibility ahead of traditional Tory concerns like tax cuts and immigration have led to grumbling among right-wingers.

Voting patterns in Ealing Southall

Telegraph

The by-election result in Ealing Southall made grim reading for the Tories. Forced into third place, the Conservative vote was less than one per cent higher than in the 2005 general election. Labour retained the seat, albeit with a reduced majority, while Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell passed a stern challenge as his party’s share of the vote increased by more than three per cent. As each party assessed the statistics, Miles Goslett spoke to the voters to find out what had driven their ballot box choice.

Jerome Healy, 58, office worker: "I voted Lib Dem. The Tory candidate had no chance of winning as he wasn't credible. I'm very unsure about the Conservative Party. David Cameron strikes me as a lightweight in the Blair mould. I thought William Hague was a good leader, but they ditched him. I like to see a more serious kind of leader and a more serious kind of candidate before I'll think of voting for them."

Sanjay Hirani, 43, shopkeeper: "I voted Liberal Democrat, as I did at the general election. They had the only credible candidate in the area. The Labour candidate has made little impact in 25 years as a councillor, and the Tory candidate has only been on the scene for a number of weeks. So I was never going to be convinced by him despite his visibility. I met David Cameron three times during the campaign. He was here a lot. So was Sir Ming. We think he's a pretty good leader. He seems honest."


Harnam Singh Hans, 65, retired: "There is no way I'd have voted for Tony Lit [the Tory candidate]. He doesn't live in Southall. He has no experience of politics. I don't mind David Cameron -- he's okay, but not his candidate. David Cameron thought he could secure votes in the Asian community with Tony Lit, but no way. We are pleased with Gordon Brown. We expect a lot of things of him. So I voted Labour, as always."

Austin Brown, 60, photographer: "I'm a floating voter. I voted Conservative this time. I couldn't allow myself to vote Labour as I detest what's been going on in the country. I think Gordon Brown has done a good job since he became PM, but we need a change. It was a protest vote. I voted for Tony Lit first and Cameron second."

Suryakant Hirani, 71, businessman: "I've lived in the area 36 years and I voted Lib Dem. I used to vote Labour and I switched to the Liberal Democrats in 2005. I'm fed up with the Labour government. I'm not sure about Gordon Brown yet, so I was never going to move back. For me it was a local decision, and the Liberal candidate was the best for that. The Tory has only been around for five minutes!"

Carolyn Kiraz, 55, teacher: "I voted for the Green Party because I think we should be doing more for the environment. David Cameron says he's supportive of the environment but he hasn't had much effect yet. I don't think it's worth trying to get him into government.

I voted Liberal Democrat at the last election but I had no faith in their candidate. For me, it was a local election and the Green Party have the best plans for improving the environment in this area."

Ali Shah, 45, butcher: "I voted Labour because I liked their candidate. Of the three, he was easily the best. He's local. He knows the area. I've lived in Southall 15 years and I've always voted Labour. It's as simple as that."

Krishan Paul Daddar, 65, businessman: "At the last general election, I voted for the Conservative candidate. This time I voted for the best man - the Labour candidate. He's been around here a long time and he's done a lot for the area. I don't mind David Cameron but the fact is he's not in power. If he comes to power, let's see what his policies are, and let's see what he's like. At the moment, it's Mr Brown. I like him. He has good policies."

Gregory Coulbeck, 43, electrician: "I used to believe that it was an obligation to vote but I now realise they're all bent, back-stabbing cheats. I've reached the point where I don't care any more. People like me don't care any more.

Politicians should be worried by the level of apathy." The result in the Ealing Southall by-election made grim reading for the Tories. Forced into third place, the Conservative vote was less than 1 per cent higher than in the 2005 general election.

Cameron is given a black eye by the real Southall

Sunday Times

David Cameron’s new hip-and-happening, ethnic-friendly Conservative party crashed and burnt against a brick wall of indifference in the Ealing Southall by-election last Thursday. Cameron paid five high-profile visits to the constituency to support Tony Lit, the slick 34-year-old Asian candidate he had excitedly hoped would snatch the seat from a vice-like Labour grip. David Davis, George Osborne and Kenneth Clarke also lent their support to Lit, who limped home in third place.

A friend of mine who lives in Southall described Lit as the Tory party’s “Great brown hope”, its first Asian candidate in what is an overwhelmingly Asian neighbourhood. Lit had been until recently the managing director of his father’s Sunrise Radio, a hugely successful Asian station; but his selection, my friend mischievously remarked, was merely a clumsy attempt to “curry favour with the natives”, proving how out of touch the Conservatives are with local communities. In its desperation to prove its credentials as a reformed and inclusive party the Tories threw their weight behind someone with no grass roots support, thinking his colour and social status were enough to secure victory.

Having grown up in the area, I was fascinated by the excitement surrounding Lit. Young, sharp suited and sporting a perfectly set Bollywood bouffant, he marketed himself as representing a new Tory era, hoping to prove the party is “the spiritual home” of the Asian community, sharing its basic values of “family, enterprise and civil liberties”.

But while Southall’s Asian population is entrepreneurial and family-oriented, it is at heart a blue-collar neighbourhood that remembers the debt it owes to a welfare state that nursed and educated its children, and to the trade unions that protected its jobs and helped in the fight against racism. The riot that broke out when the National Front tried to march through the high street in 1979 is a basic part of Southall folklore. If the Tories were going to win it over they needed to offer a lot more than a brown-skinned Cameron clone.

One common criticism of Lit among the people I spoke to last week was that “He’s too young. What does he know?”. While the Tories hailed his youth and energy, they overlooked the fact that Asians generally revere age and experience. While Lit promoted himself as young and modern, the seat was won at a canter with a low-profile campaign by the 60-year-old Virendra Sharma, who has served as a Labour councillor for more than 25 years.

The Labour party even hired an old Indian Tata bus, decked out in gold and silver decorations, from which to blare out its campaign messages. It was a touch of sentimental genius, a comforting nod to the people’s love of their motherland and their roots.

Sandwiched between the leafy bourgeois west London environ of Ealing and Heathrow, Southall is recognised throughout the world as “Little India”, a place more akin to Mumbai than a British suburb. Two months back the American hip-hop mogul Timbaland was spotted spending thousands of pounds in its music shops, buying records for his sampling archive. When the kids in Brooklyn next shake their booty to a bhangra-inspired Missy Elliott track they’ll have Southall to thank for it.

Largely built by migrants from the north Indian region of Punjab (nowadays the mix includes Poles, Somalis and Afro-Caribbeans) it’s a bustling, exotic place packed with shops selling saris, Indian jewellery and every type of spice. Its most famous pub is the Glassy Junction, the only pub outside India that accepts rupees. Glassy Junction is famed for serving traditional Punjabi food and drink, and is also renowned for its very British strip night, when the white performer walks among the customers after her routine with an empty pint glass – this time accepting only sterling.

Southall is a traditional, close-knit but also parochial and gossipy neighbourhood. Growing up there in the 1980s I couldn’t even smoke a cigarette on a street corner without some busybody relaying the information to my mum before I’d even got back home. When I was young it was impossible to talk to girls on the street; they would always be chaperoned. Back then, the girls generally wore thick plaits and traditional clothing, and stared submissively at the floor.

Last week I saw young women in sexy modern outfits, chatting into mobile phones while brazenly looking boys in the eye as they passed them by. But the downside to this westernisation is that Southall has seen a 144% increase in drug use among the young since 2000 and a rise in teenage pregnancies.

The Tories might have thought Lit’s fame was an asset, but it provided negative fuel for the gossips. Shopkeepers spoke to me of a “Lit mafia” taking over the area. Lit’s father Avtar had transformed a pirate station that operated out of borrowed attics in the 1980s into a legitimate business that is now worth millions. Avtar is a notorious Southall figure, not least for outraging the locals by divorcing his first wife – Tony’s mother – and marrying again, an act regarded as scandalous by Asians of his generation.

In the 2001 general election Avtar ran as an independent, only to lose and have Sunrise fined £10,000 for broadcasting a political interview with him in breach of the Broadcasting Act. Avtar Lit is the subject of much local tittle-tattle regarding his business and personal dealings; choosing his son wasn’t the smartest move the Conservatives could make.

Though Tony’s campaign was fought within the rules, he made the most of his radio connections as his campaign cars drove around blaring recordings by Sunrise’s most famous presenters. Many people regarded Lit’s desire to win the seat as an attempt to turn their town into a father and son family business.

The Tories offered no solutions to Southall’s problems. I spoke to Parag Bhargava, who manages a Southall marriage bureau, who told me the area needs a Tube link to ease the traffic congestion that is affecting local businesses, and that more facilities are needed for young people who are increasingly caught up in antisocial behaviour.

The other issues the town faces, he told me, are the rising number of Asian women who can’t find a husband, as young men opt for a social life and one-night stands, and the fact Sikh women generally prefer Sikh men who don’t wear turbans, causing a glut of turbaned bachelors. If Tony Lit had offered solutions to any of this he’d be sitting in Westminster tomorrow, said Bhargava. Cameron’s new look Tories have a lot to learn.

Tory recriminations after by-elections fiasco

Sunday Times

Tory recriminations after by-elections fiasco leaves Cameron on the back foot

Spirits in Tory Central Office on Friday morning could hardly have been any damper. As staff arrived late, blaming the unseasonal July downpours, the end-of-the-week strategy meeting was cancelled and David Cameron’s team sat around looking grim.

The party failed to make progress in either of two by-elections. In Ealing Southall it remained in third place behind Labour and the Lib Dems; in Sedgefield it had gone backwards, from second to third. One staffer tried to make light of the disaster: “It’s grim here because of the weather, more than anything else. It’s not as if we were expecting to win!”

But the jitters were impossible to hide. Rumours swept Westminster that George Bridges, a long-serving party official, was leaving. Party officials played them down, saying that Bridges, who is Cameron’s “political director”, was merely getting married and would be off on honeymoon until September. When The Sunday Times telephoned him a month ago to ask him about rumours that he was leaving, he denied it. But yesterday a party official admitted that he was indeed considering quitting for “work-life balance reasons”.

There is no doubt tensions at party headquarters have been brewing for some time. Two former Central Office figures close to Lord Ashcroft, the millionaire former party treasurer, have this month been quietly reinstalled. Gavin Barwell and Stephen Gilbert are said to have been instructed to act “cheek by jowl” with Cameron’s people, but to act as Ashcroft’s “eyes and ears”. It is no secret that Bridges and Ashcroft do not see eye to eye.

Insiders also speculate that Bridges, an old Etonian who cut his teeth working for John Major, may be uneasy about Andy Coulson, the former News of the World editor who was drafted in two weeks ago to be Cameron’s “Alastair Campbell figure”. Insiders say Bridges was not consulted about the appointment.

Whatever the personal machinations at Central Office, there was no escaping the electoral disappointment. Most insiders agreed that the two by-election results were a big problem for Cameron.

“It was a complete balls-up,” said one Tory peer close to the Cameron regime. Another said: “I’m not very optimistic about the position of my party. The problem with the leadership is that when they were [polling] 40% in the local elections, they thought it was all to do with them. It wasn’t. It was the country being fed up with Tony Blair.

“Now nobody knows what we are about; there is no flag to rally to. We have to concentrate our efforts into undoing the government.”

The by-election results have left Cameron exposed, and recriminations were flying over his tactics. Some officials on Friday were querying the selection of Tony Lit, the Asian businessman selected to fight Ealing Southall for the Tories.

A figure of little political experience, Lit suffered a serious blow when it emerged that one of his companies had given £4,800 to Labour. Lit had also allowed himself to be photographed with Blair just days before joining the Tories and becoming their candidate.

The lack of coordination in strategy was reflected in differing approaches in the two contests: in Ealing Southall, campaigners billed themselves as “David Cameron’s Conservatives” - but not in Blair’s old seat of Sedgefield.

Mark Field, MP for the Cities of London and Westminster, summed up the party’s troubles: “The centralised imposition of a Sikh candidate, who first became associated with the party 10 days before the by-election was called and whose most recent political activity had been attendance at a Labour party fundraiser in mid-June, always had the makings of a fiasco.

“The way the sensitivities of local Tory activists were bypassed amounted to contempt towards our supporters and the electorate. Building trust among ethnic groups can never be a quick fix; it has to be the culmination of consistent work and commitment.”

His view was shared by local people. Deep Singh, a waiter in Southall, spoke for many when he said: “The Tory candidate may have had a good face and business, but that doesn’t mean he would make a good MP. We are not stupid in Southall. It feels like style over substance.”

Inside Central Office, part of the blame was being shovelled on to Grant Shapps, MP for Welwyn Hatfield and a party spokesman on housing, who had been put in charge of the campaign. There were mutterings that a more analytical and professional approach was needed.

One insider said that Lynton Crosby, the Australian election guru who sought to help Michael Howard in his 2005 campaign, had been seen around Tory HQ in recent months. “Lynton has always been of the opinion that we need pros, not MPs, running campaigns,” said one Tory insider. “We just aren’t breaking through.”

Despite protestations of the party faithful that these were “predicable results in safe Labour seats”, the Conservatives should be making strong progress at this stage of a parliament if they are to have any chance of winning a general election.

As one Labour aide claimed: “This was the moment we knew that the next election was in the bag. If Cameron can’t even come second in a by-election at this point in a parliament, with Iraq and all that resentment towards Labour, then he is surely doomed.”

As Cameron struggles to capture the middle ground, Gordon Brown has fought back with headline-grabbing announcements, often using a planted question from a loyal MP at prime minister’s questions. Using this ploy Brown has effectively dumped the supercasino in Manchester and announced a possible toughening of drug laws, with cannabis returning from a grade C to a grade B drug. Cameron, meanwhile, has reaffirmed his commitment to restoring tax incentives for marriage.

It may look to some voters that the two parties are vying to steal each other’s clothes, but the announcements conceal the fact that the new prime minister is quietly burying some of Blair’s key measures intended to improve public services.

The think tank Reform, in a report to be published this week, says Brown is rolling back from the Blairite agenda. “The new government seems to exist in two different worlds,” said Andrew Haldenby, its director. “It accepts the case for less government intervention and for competition in the private economy, while taking actions that will decisively weaken competition and choice in public services.

“The retreat from reform can be seen very clearly in policy affecting the NHS, city academies, university and student finance, and housing. For skills and welfare reform, initial statements have done nothing to improve very weak areas of existing policy.”

Among examples cited by Reform is the announcement by Alan Johnson, the health secretary, that there is to be a “once in a lifetime review” of the NHS. Such reviews have in the past been an excuse for delaying reforms.

Ed Balls, the school’s secretary, announced that city academies would lose freedom of choice over what they teach and have to follow the national curriculum.

The Tories, says Reform, are struggling to find a robust response because they, too, are in electioneering mode, engaged in a battle “for the hearts and minds of public sector workers”.

A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times today suggests that Cameron is losing out to Brown. It gives Labour 40% of the vote, a seven-point lead over the Conservatives, and the biggest for 21 months. Labour was last ahead of the Tories by this amount before Cameron took over from Howard as party leader.

The poll details make grim reading for Cameron following the by-election setbacks. More people have been pleasantly surprised by how Brown has done as prime minister than have been disappointed, suggesting the “honeymoon” being enjoyed by Brown is genuine.

Brown also outscores Cameron on a range of personal characteristics. He is regarded as “strong”, “sticks to what he believes in”, “honest”, “decisive”, “in touch with the concerns of ordinary people” and “good in a crisis”. Cameron is merely seen as more charismatic.

As he comes to terms with last week’s results, he will know that is not enough.

Shadow cabinet questions Cameron's strategy

The Observer

22 July 2007

Shadow cabinet questions Cameron's strategy after poll reveals voters are rejecting party

Gordon Brown has presided over a surge in support for the Labour Party that today breaks through the politically symbolic 40 per cent barrier for the first time in nearly two years.
As David Cameron faces the first signs of a shadow cabinet revolt after the Tories slumped to third place in two by-elections on Thursday night, an Ipsos MORI poll for today's Observer puts Labour on 41 per cent, a six-point lead over the Tories on 35 per cent. This is the first time Labour's support has risen above 40 per cent since November 2005. The Liberal Democrats remain unchanged on 15 per cent.

The poll will provide a strong backdrop for the Prime Minister, who will this week lay the ground for a summer offensive against the Tories with a series of policy announcements to Parliament before the Commons rises for the recess on Thursday. Brown will hold his first Downing Street press conference tomorrow and will launch his anti-terrorism strategy later in the week.
Downing Street is feeling confident amid signs that the 'Brown bounce' in the polls is holding firm. The Prime Minister will also be encouraged to learn that members of the shadow cabinet have started to voice unease about the Cameron strategy after the Tories' poor performance in the Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections.

There were also reports last night that up to two Conservative MPs have signed letters expressing no confidence in Cameron's leadership. These are understood to have been deposited with Sir Michael Spicer, chairman of the backbench 1922 committee.

The Ealing Southall result came as a particular blow to Cameron because the Tory leader visited the constituency five times during the campaign. Ballot papers were also marked with 'David Cameron's Conservatives'.

This was strongly criticised by senior Tories. 'It is astonishing that ballot papers were marked with David Cameron's Conservatives,' one said. 'That was a silly mistake.'

In an ominous sign for Cameron, some senior frontbenchers are voicing criticisms about the leader's entire strategy. One said that Cameron was proving no match for Brown in the Commons, even though the Tory leader's polished performances have prompted opponents to award him a victory on points.

'All that matters is the 17 seconds that appear on television,' the senior frontbencher said. 'When people see Brown they will think one word: serious.'

Cameron, who is saying that he is 'completely unrepentant' about running a strong campaign in a constituency that would once have been all but abandoned by the Tories, will tomorrow make clear that he is pressing ahead with his modernising mission. He will fly into the Rwandan capital Kigali to take part in a major Tory aid project and will launch the second of six major policy commissions - on globalisation and poverty - in the Rwandan parliament on Tuesday.

'This is when the modernising approach is tested,' a senior Cameron ally told The Observer. 'Normally at this time we retreat to our comfort zone and talk about immigration... This is the moment to hold our nerve.'

But one senior Tory voiced strong criticism of the policy commissions: 'Having lots of policies is no good if you do not have the philosophy to underpin that. If we can't answer "Where do you want to go?", then the policy means nothing. We have been weak on that.'

By-elections show Tories lack public confidence

Sedgefield Conservatives

21 July 2007



No one any longer imagines that by-election results are sure pointers to the outcome of the next general election, but they are nevertheless rough indicators of how strong and weak the three major parties are.

A sudden Labour surge in a clutch of by-elections in June 1994, on the eve of Tony Blair's election as party leader, proved a harbinger of Labour's triumph three years later.

There was no such surge in the Tories' favour on Thursday. On the contrary, the Conservatives remained stuck in third place in Ealing Southall and slipped into third place in Sedgefield.

The two by-election results reinforce the point made by the opinion polls: that, just as it took the Labour Party a generation to slough off the reputation it acquired for governmental incompetence during the 1970s, so it is likely to take the Conservatives many years to restore public confidence following the chaotic displays they put on during the early and mid-1990s.

If a party flounders under five successive leaders, as the Tories have done since 1994, the problem almost certainly lies in how voters have come to see that party rather than in the inadequacies of any one of its leaders. A political party can change its policies and its leaders, but cannot change its past. The Tories - in the words of one wise old party strategist - need to "think long".

The Conservatives' share of the vote remained virtually unchanged in both Southall and Sedgefield. In Southall it edged up a minuscule 0.9 points. In Sedgefield it edged up a paltry 0.2 points. The return on David Cameron's personal investment in Southall could scarcely have been smaller.

In Sedgefield the intervention of a BNP candidate probably cost the Tories some support. The far-Right party's candidate there captured 8.9 per cent of the vote.

If the Tories are depressed by Thursday's events, Labour has little to cheer about either - apart from the mere fact of having held on.

Labour's vote fell by 14.1 points in Sedgefield and by 7.3 points in Southall. In Sedgefield, Labour's share of the vote was only 44.8 per cent, in Southall only 41.5 per cent. In neither place does Labour now have an overall majority.

The only party to make more than derisory gains was the Liberal Democrats, who were up 8 points in Sedgefield and 3.2 points in Southall. However, even the Liberal Democrats failed to come within hailing distance of victory in either.

The swing in their favour from Labour was 11.1 per cent in Sedgefield and 5.3 per cent in Southall.

Local circumstances undoubtedly affected the results at the margin in both constituencies - the fracas over Tony Lit's recent conversion to the Conservatives and his company's recent donation to Labour cannot have done the Tories much good in Southall - but the broadly similar results in a London constituency and one in the north-east of England suggest that long-term national forces were mainly in play.

Only four by-elections have been held in England since the May 2005 General Election. Labour has lost support by varying amounts in all four. The Liberal Democrats have gained support by varying amounts in all four.

The Tories have neither gained much ground nor lost much, except in Bromley and Chislehurst a year ago when they suffered a swing of 14.6 per cent to the Liberal Democrats.

The inferences to be drawn are that by-elections generate less local excitement than Westminster's political junkies often suppose and only rarely do large numbers of ordinary voters undergo violent swings of political mood.

David Cameron has certainly not succeeded in engineering any such mood-swing in the Tories' favour so far.

• Anthony King is professor of government at Essex University

David Cameron: Is it Blackpool or bust?

Telegraph

21 July 2007



If ever a political leader will be in the wrong place at the wrong time, it will be David Cameron in Africa next week. With his party less sure of his leadership than at any time since he took over in December 2005, he desperately needs to restore confidence in his modernisation project.

On Monday, however, as a buoyant Gordon Brown unveils plans for a new house building blitz and prepares to put his Cabinet and the Labour Party on general election alert at a summit at Chequers on Thursday - Cameron will be 4,000 miles adrift from the domestic political action, in Rwanda.

Inevitably, Cameron's critics in other parties will dismiss the trip - during which he will look round an orphanage and speak about global poverty in the Kigali parliament - as yet another empty PR stunt. More alarmingly for the Conservative leader, an increasing number of those beginning to question "Project Cameron" now include senior - and some previously supportive - Tories.

The party has fallen behind Labour in the polls, as Brown, just three weeks into his job as Prime Minister, enjoys a stronger than expected public opinion bounce. In Cameron's inner circle the first signs of tension are developing over the direction in which he is taking the party. Senior advisers are said to be falling out and last night it was confirmed that George Bridges, one of his closest aides, had suddenly quit.

Yesterday, the sense of a mini-crisis enveloping the Tories deepened after the failure to capture even second place in two by-elections; in Labour-held Ealing Southall and in Tony Blair's former seat of Sedgefield. When a party should be powering to victory in every by-election if it is to have any chance of winning a general election, the Tories limped home in third place in both.

In Sedgefield, the Liberal Democrats leapfrogged the Tories into second place. A week before polling day in Ealing, the Cameron high command insisted the party was on course for victory. By Thursday, party workers were almost completely absent, as if they were aware that they were heading for humiliation.

Cameron, who personalised the Ealing Southall campaign by paying five visits to the constituency and describing his party as "David Cameron's Conservatives" on the ballot paper, claimed the share of the vote had held up. But he was clearly depressed by the outcome. "Obviously, I would have liked to have done better," he said.

Tory MPs and advisers are admitting privately that the Ealing Southall campaign was a catastrophe because of the choice of a local "celebrity" candidate, Tony Lit. It emerged last weekend that Lit, who was involved with a local radio station, had recently been photographed attending a Labour fund-raising event with Tony Blair.

The pictures of him alongside the former prime minister allowed other parties to portray him as little more than a smooth, good-looking plant with no firm political convictions and who, as a Sikh, was installed to appeal to the ethnic minority vote.

Harriet Harman, the Labour deputy leader gloated at Cameron's failure. "We have a spring in our step because of what has happened to the Conservatives - because David Cameron actually put his own name on the ballot paper in Ealing and people didn't vote for him."

Privately, even some dedicated modernisers at the heart of Cameron's team who, until very recently had never questioned the way they have been rebranding the party as young, sensitive, caring and cool, are now concerned that it lacks the seriousness necessary to counter the grim, new Puritanism of Gordon Brown's Labour.

Yesterday, a dedicated young "Cameronista" Tory said that it was time for Cameron to stop frolicking in front of the cameras and get down to devising some serious policies and attacking Labour. "People have got the message. Everyone knows we are not nasty party any more. They get that we are soft and cuddly. They have seen the velvet glove. Now they want to see the iron fist inside it."

A senior MP said: "Rwanda always looked a bit like a stunt. Now it looks like a very ill-timed one."

Cameron and his inner circle had certainly expected life to get tougher once Tony Blair was out of office and Brown had introduced a different style and new ideas to Downing Street. Steve Hilton, the Tory leader's chief strategy adviser, always said that "stage one" of an overdue modernisation of the party needed only to convince people that Cameron Conservatives were in tune with the times and compassionate - unlike the prevailing view of the old Thatcherite brand.

Some senior Tories say a lack of "wise old hands" in the leader's office is a real problem for Cameron. In both Ealing and Sedgefield, the Liberal Democrats, masters of by-election tactics, were astonished that the Tories appeared to be taking the voters for granted by predicting victory days before polling day.

Osborne, on a visit to Sedgefield last week, said that the Tories were not playing for second place in the solid Labour seat. He did not mean, however, that they were aiming for third.

Yesterday, Mark Field, a Tory MP, said the party had shown very poor judgment by selecting Lit, who, he said, "first became associated with the party 10 days before the by-election".

The decision had offended local Tories, he argued. "The way in which the sensitivities of local Tory activists were bypassed amounted to contempt towards our supporters and the electorate at large. Building trust and support amongst ethnic groups can never be a quick fix - it has to be the culmination of consistent work and commitment."

The focus will now turn to the party conference season. Somehow, Cameron has to reinvigorate the grass-roots with some truly Tory policy ideas; ones that won't invite Labour and the Liberals to say that the Conservatives are reverting to the "nasty party" again.

A Tory candidate described the party conference in Blackpool - Cameron's second as leader - as "absolutely critical". "We are not in meltdown yet," he said. "But if we keep getting things wrong and making the wrong calls, we soon will be."

Right-wing Tories demand changes after defeat

Independent

21 July 2007

David Cameron faced a furious backlash from within his own party after the Conservatives slumped to third place in the Southall and Sedgefield by-elections.

MPs and activists demanded that Mr Cameron ditch his "heir to Blair" style after the party failed to make a breakthrough in Southall, despite a high-profile campaign that even put "David Cameron's Conservatives" on the ballot paper.

They issued a stark warning to Mr Cameron's high command after yesterday's poll results showed that the party failed to break out of third place, while the second-placed Liberal Democrats gained ground in an election that saw Labour's majority cut to 5,000.

The Liberal Democrats also overhauled the Tories in Tony Blair's former seat of Sedgefield, pushing the party into third place. Labour easily held the two seats, albeit with sharply reduced majorities.

Mr Cameron visited Southall five times in support of their controversial candidate Tony Lit, who joined the party just days before being selected as a candidate. He faced embarrassment after it emerged that Mr Lit attended a Labour fundraising dinner before his selection. Yesterday the Conservatives admitted the party "would like to have done better".

Caroline Spelman, the party chairman, said: "We have to build from the grass-roots up and I think the important thing David Cameron has given us is that his commitment to localism has brought us into the position of being the largest party of local government." But one MP said it was "idiotic" to put Mr Cameron's name on the ballot paper. He said: "This has just confirmed what people are saying in Parliament, that Cameron shouldn't be another Tony Blair. We have been there, done that. The future is in old-fashioned politics. That is what Cameron needs to do if he wants to be Prime Minister

"MPs are saying that Cameron is getting it wrong and he has got to get himself sorted out or the Tory party will do what it does. We will be out for another five years and people will say, 'Time for an old-fashioned politician'."

Mark Field, the Conservative MP for the Cities of London and Westminster, launched a stinging attack on Mr Cameron's handling of the campaign, warning that Mr Lit's selection "always had the makings of a fiasco". He told the Conservativehome website: "The way in which the sensitivities of local Tory activists were bypassed amounted to contempt towards our supporters and the electorate at large."

He added: "I believe that our by-election campaign in Ealing Southall may have done lasting damage to the party's outreach work in the British Asian communities."

The website carried a string of comments attacking the campaign, run by the MP Grant Shapps.

One comment said: "Maybe there will be a silver lining if this sham of spin and PR comes to an end. The country is crying out for a real alternative and sadly we offer nothing more than a fresh face." Another said: "Cameron seems cursed in all by-elections. This is very very very bad."

Others, however, insisted that Southall was a special case, arguing that the party was unlikely to do well in the seat.

Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, had faced warnings that a poor performance would increase pressure on his leadership. He hailed the results yesterday as "a blow to Brown and a disaster for David Cameron."

He said: "The Conservative Party put everything into this seat and got nothing out of it.

"Not only are they totally marginalised in the north of England, they are going nowhere in the South."

Tory Inquests and recriminations begin

The Times

21 July 2007

Inquests and recriminations begin into the Tories’ failure in two elections

David Cameron’s leadership faced the first murmurings of revolt yesterday as MPs, officials and activists reacted with dismay to the Tory party’s failure in by-elections in Ealing Southall and Sedgefield.

As party elders urged calm, saying that the Conservatives must not turn in on themselves in the face of a Labour revival, Mr Cameron for the first time faced public criticism from mainstream MPs, with one of them accusing him of exploiting racial divisions in the London contest.

There was talk of a “wobble”, the first under Mr Cameron, within the parliamentary party and it emerged that George Bridges, the campaign director, was quitting. His departure was agreed two weeks ago but the disclosure yesterday added to the sense of unease in Tory circles.

The Conservatives were beaten into third place in both battles and Tory websites and blogs yesterday were dismissive of the leadership’s strategy, which was blamed for causing lasting damage to the party’s relations with British Asians. Mark Field, MP for the Cities of London and Westminster, attacked his party’s campaign in Southall for blatant opportunism in its attempts to woo the area’s large Sikh community.

He was particularly critical of the defection to the Tories of five Labour councillors, all Sikhs, during the campaign, saying that the party had been manipulated by a dissident group but presented their move as an ideological one. The ringleader applied to be the Labour candidate and, after being rejected, defected and accused Labour of not being willing to have a turbaned Sikh as an MP.

“Our consequent attempts to woo the Sikh vote in Southall by exploiting divisions, which have racked the local Sikh and Hindu communities for decades, also struck many as blatant opportunism,” Mr Field wrote on the website conservativehome.com. “To many neutral observers these actions betrayed a failure by our party to treat sensitively the potentially explosive racial divisions within Ealing Southall.”

His criticisms raised the stakes as the Conservatives began an inquest into how they performed so badly despite a well-funded and high-profile campaign. Their choice of candidate was one reason. Tony Lit, a Sikh businessman who ran his father’s Sunrise radio station in Southall, had no links with the party other than having voted Tory in four general elections.

Incredibly, Tory campaign managers had known from the outset that, weeks before his selection, Mr Lit had attended an Asian community farewell dinner for Tony Blair and had had his photograph taken with the outgoing Prime Minister. They disputed its description as a Labour fundraising event, even though Sunrise made out its £4,800 cheque to the Labour Party.

A leading moderniser said that Tory MPs were questioning Mr Cameron’s direction: “There is a lot of talk about style over substance. There is a lot of talk about it being a PR machine. The accusations that the Labour Party have been making are being regurgitated by Tory MPs. One senior back-bencher has been privately questioning whether the emperor is wearing any clothes.”

It also emerged that Mr Cameron had clashed with traditionalist MPs over his request that statements from party groups, such as the traditionalist Cornerstone, should be cleared through party headquarters. Party sources said there was a real desire to stop the party turning in on itself.

Phil Wilson won Sedgefield for Labour to succeed Mr Blair although the Liberal Democrats, who overtook the Conservatives to go into second place, saw a big rise in their share of the vote. The results will take the pressure off Sir Menzies Campbell, their leader.

Mr Wilson, 48, an old friend and former aide of Mr Blair, was at his unglamorous office in the dilapidated town centre of Newton Aycliffe, by 9.15am yesterday. Drinking coffee from a polystyrene cup to compensate for lack of sleep and surrounded by stickers and flyers left over from a successful campaign, he spent his morning replying to congratulatory messages and greeting constituents.

Brown passes first test in by-elections

ITV News

20 July 2007



Labour has held on to two safe seats in the first by-elections since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister, but with a reduced majority.

The results will be a bitter blow for the Tories who had fought particularly hard in Ealing Southall, where their candidate Tony Lit was listed on the ballot paper as standing for 'David Cameron's Conservatives'.

The Tory leader had been hoping to restore momentum to his challenge for power after rows over grammar schools and Labour's "Brown bounce" in the polls.

But they suffered a setback when it emerged that Mr Lit had donated money to Labour and been photographed with Tony Blair just days before his selection.

Victorious Ealing Southall Labour candidate Virendra Sharma made a pointed attack on the high-profile Tory campaign, saying "it is policies that win elections, not slick PR".

But the results were good news for Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell, who saw his party take second place in both the west London constituency of Ealing Southall and Tony Blair's old seat in Sedgefield, county Durham.

Lib Dem candidate Greg Stone almost doubled his party's share of the vote to overtake the Conservatives in Sedgefield, while in Ealing Southall Tories also trailed in third in a seat which David Cameron visited five times during the campaign.

Mr Sharma, who polled 15,188 in Ealing Southall, said: "This is a great result for our new Prime Minister Gordon Brown and it is a humiliating rebuke from Britain's most diverse constituency to David Cameron's Conservatives.

"David Cameron staked his reputation on this by-election and the people of Southall and Ealing have given their verdict tonight. We don't trust the Tories to represent us. They don't stand for us."

Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman said she was "delighted" by both results, which had put "a new spring in the step of Labour supporters and Labour Party members".

Liberal Democrat Nigel Bakhai won the fiercely-fought battle for second place in Ealing Southall with 10,118 votes, increasing his share of the vote by just over 3 per cent. Mr Lit increased his share by less than 1 per cent, taking 8,230 votes.

Labour's former chief whip Hilary Armstrong said the Sedgefield result showed that "the public have given their endorsement to Gordon Brown's Government".

But victorious candidate Phil Wilson's 45 per cent share of the vote was 14 per cent down on Mr Blair's haul in the 2005 General Election.

Most of the benefit from the swing away from Labour was felt by the Lib Dems and the British National Party, which held onto its deposit with almost 9 per cent of the vote.

Sir Menzies described the results as "a blow to Brown and a disaster for David Cameron".

Labour wins fiercely fought by election

Ealing Times

20 July 2007

LABOUR'S majority in Ealing Southall was slashed to just over 5,000 last night after a fiercely fought by-election.

The contest followed the death of veteran Labour MP Piara Khabra, who had represented Ealing Southall for 15 years.

Virendra Sharma, the Labour candidate, was victorious with 15,188 votes, giving him a majority of 5,070 over his nearest rival, Liberal Democrat Nigel Bakhai.

Mr Sharma pledged to following in the previous incumbent's footsteps and help to unite the diverse communities of Ealing and Southall, adding that he was "happy and comfortable" with the victory.

The result of the by-election, with a high turnout of 43.1 percent, came on the same night that Labour held on to Tony Blair's old seat in Sedgefield.

Tony Lit, a local businessman and former managing director of Sunrise Radio, was representing the Conservative Party, and came in third place with 8,230 votes.

Mr Lit had been expected to produce a stronger challenge, but his campaign was derailed last week when it emerged that he had recently attended a Labour Party fundraiser.

After the results were announced, Mr Lit defended his apparent gaffe: "I don't regret it at all," he said. "I attended this event as managing director of Sunrise Radio. Nine days earlier I was at a David Cameron event, there is nothing unusual about it. It is a regular occurrence for me to go to these events to represent people from all different kinds of backgrounds and all parts of the community."

Counting the votes began shortly after 10pm on Thursday night, when ballot boxes began arriving at Ealing Town Hall.

Mr Sharma was declared the winner just after 2.30am on Friday morning.

In his victory speech, Mr Sharma attributed his win to a rejection of the Conservative party tactics and policies.

He said: "It is a humble rebuke from Britain's most diverse constituency to David Cameron's Conservatives. The people of Ealing and Southall have given Cameron their verdict tonight: we do not trust the Tories to represent us."

Harriet Harman, newly elected deputy leader of the Labour Party, was the only major political figure to put in an appearance at the by election which has kept Ealing gripped for most of this month.

By-election blow for Cameron

Independent

20 July 2007

Labour turned the heat up on David Cameron today after the Tories failed to achieve a breakthrough in the first parliamentary by-elections since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister.

Mr Brown's party held on to Ealing Southall and Tony Blair's old seat in Sedgefield with reduced majorities.

The results fuelled speculation that the new Prime Minister might take a chance and call an early general election.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Menzies Campbell, who saw his party take second place in both seats, was also taking heart from the outcome.

Lib Dem candidate Greg Stone almost doubled his party's share of the vote to overtake the Conservatives in Sedgefield, while in Ealing Southall Tories also trailed in third in a seat which Mr Cameron visited five times during the campaign.

The results were a blow for Mr Cameron, who was hoping to restore momentum to his challenge for power after being knocked off course by rows over grammar schools and Labour's "Brown bounce" in the polls.

The Tories fought particularly hard in Ealing Southall, where their candidate Tony Lit was listed on the ballot paper as standing for " David Cameron's Conservatives".

But they suffered a setback when it emerged that Mr Lit had donated money to Labour and been photographed with Tony Blair just days before his selection.

Victorious Labour candidate Virendra Sharma made a pointed attack on the high-profile Tory campaign, saying "it is policies that win elections, not slick PR".

Mr Sharma, who polled 15,188 in Ealing Southall, said: "This is a great result for our new Prime Minister Gordon Brown and it is a humiliating rebuke from Britain's most diverse constituency to David Cameron's Conservatives."

Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman said she was "delighted" by both results, which had put "a new spring in the step of Labour supporters and Labour Party members".

Liberal Democrat Nigel Bakhai won the fiercely-fought battle for second place in Ealing Southall with 10,118 votes, increasing his share of the vote by just over 3%. Mr Lit increased his share by less than 1%, taking 8,230 votes.

Mr Lit said: "This is a positive result for the Conservative Party. Yes, we haven't won it but we have moved in the right direction."

But Mr Bakhai said: "The real disappointment in this by-election is for David Cameron. He put his name on the ballot paper and he came third."

Sir Menzies described the results as "a blow to Brown and a disaster for David Cameron".

Labour's former chief whip Hilary Armstrong said the Sedgefield result showed that "the public have given their endorsement to Gordon Brown's Government".

But victorious candidate Phil Wilson's 45% share of the vote was 14% down on Mr Blair's haul in the 2005 General Election.

Most of the benefit from the swing away from Labour was felt by the Lib Dems and the British National Party, which held onto its deposit with almost 9% of the vote.

Accepting his victory in Sedgefield, Mr Wilson said he was "honoured and deeply humbled" to be elected to the seat where he grew up.

"We have won our victory here tonight because of the success of New Labour under Tony Blair and our renewal with Gordon Brown," he said. " This election has been a disaster for David Cameron. People know he just can't be trusted when it comes to the big issues."

Mr Stone, who took 5,572 votes behind Mr Wilson's 12,528, said: "This has been a fantastic result for the Liberal Democrats. Yet again we have shown we are the only alternative to Labour in the North."

But Tory candidate Graham Robb, who came third with 4,082 but marginally improved his party's share of the vote, rejected the claim.

"It is a good result for us, because we can prove we are still in business in the North-East and as we regenerate our party, we will be back in business even more," he said.

Tory party chairman Caroline Spelman said the party "would like to have done better" in both seats but defended Mr Cameron's leadership.

"We made progress in Ealing Southall and reached in to communities we found it difficult to reach in to," she told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"We have to build from the grass roots up and I think the important thing David Cameron has given us is, his commitment to localism has brought us in to the position of being the largest party of local government."

Brown gains double win in first poll test

Guardian

20 July 2007

· Tory charm offensive fails in Ealing Southall
· Reduced Labour majority in Blair's old constituency

Conservative hopes of ending the Brown bounce suffered a setback early this morning, as the party came third in two high-profile byelections despite a push spearheaded by David Cameron.
Voters gave Gordon Brown a cautious endorsement in his first electoral test as prime minister, when Labour held on to both Ealing Southall and Tony Blair's former seat of Sedgefield, albeit with much-reduced majorities.

The results raise questions about the Tories' ability to recover from the boost the government has enjoyed since the handover at No 10 and, perhaps more damagingly, about Mr Cameron's changes to the party. Many saw the decision to parachute a charismatic political novice into Southall as evidence of the Tories' tendency to put spin ahead of substance.

The Tory leader was personally closely associated with the campaign: he visited the west London seat five times and his party even appeared on the ballot paper as "Cameron's Conservatives".
Virendra Sharma - a councillor in the area for 25 years - held the seat left vacant by Piara Khabra's death last month, getting 15,188 votes. That gave Labour a majority of just over 5,000, fewer than half its previous level. Nigel Bakhai actually increased the Lib Dem lead over the Tories, taking 10,118 votes to their 8,230, in a humiliation for Conservative newcomer Tony Lit.

"This is a great result for our new prime minister Gordon Brown," Mr Sharma said. "David Cameron staked his reputation on this byelection. The people of Ealing have given him their verdict - they do not trust the Tories to represent us."

Labour were quick to label the result a disaster for the Conservatives' controversial candidate who joined the party days before he was selected - infuriating local activists.

The Conservatives hoped his high profile locally, as the managing director of his father's radio station Sunrise, would help the party to leapfrog the Lib Dems and beat Labour. But he was always a high risk candidate, and his campaign floundered when it emerged at the weekend he had helped arrange a donation of almost £5,000 from Sunrise to Labour only weeks ago. His rivals took pleasure in distributing a picture of him beaming alongside Mr Blair.

There was never any doubt that Phil Wilson would win Sedgefield, the seat vacated by his old boss, Mr Blair. But a low turnout saw Labour's majority slashed from 18,500 to 7,000. The Lib Dems' Greg Stone leapfrogged the Conservative candidate Graham Robb into second place.

Last night's results were a welcome boost for Sir Menzies Campbell, whose leadership of the Lib Dems has been under increasing pressure in recent months because of poor opinion poll ratings and concerns about a squeeze from a resurgent Conservative party. Had the Tories pushed the Lib Dems into third place, it would have been the first time the party had been squeezed from first or second place since its foundation in 1988.

The Conservatives were initially confident they would beat the Lib Dems in Ealing and thought they might even defeat Labour. But a Tory aide said last night: "We had a good candidate and we fought a good campaign, but it's a difficult seat for us."

Both last night's seats were considered ultra-safe Labour constituencies. But governments tend to suffer in byelections: the Tories did not hold a single seat in contests between 1989 and 1997.

A long week for David Cameron

Telegraph

David Cameron will be painfully aware that a week really is a long time in politics.

Just seven days ago, Tory insiders were talking excitedly about how well things were going for their campaign in Ealing Southall.

Tony Lit, the party's energetic 34-year-old candidate, was making all the running, while Labour were in disarray, after no fewer than five of its local councillors had defected to the Conservatives.

An upset appeared to be on the cards. By last night, Mr Cameron's hopes of a breakthrough were in tatters. Mr Lit's campaign appeared to run out of steam after it emerged he had attended a Labour fundraiser - and posed for photos with Tony Blair - only last month.

Last night he finished a distant third. The result was the same in Sedgefield in the North East, where the Tories lost second place to the Liberal Democrats.

The party's poor performance is clearly a setback for the leadership's modernising drive. But the result in Ealing Southall is also a personal blow for the Tory leader, who hand-picked the candidate and then visited the constituency five times in recent weeks to boost the campaign.

Mr Lit, meanwhile, described himself on all his leaflets, posters and even the returning officers list as belonging to "David Cameron's Conservatives." Yet despite his best efforts, the Cameron magic simply did not work.

The danger for the Tory leader is that his critics within the party will argue the disappointing results show why the party needs to change direction and embrace more traditional issues like immigration and Europe.

The gloom in the Conservative Campaign headquarters will contrast sharply with the jubilation in Number 10 and the relief that Mr Brown has not stumbled at his first electoral test.

While Labour was never in danger of losing Sedgefield, the unique mix of communities and ethnic groups in Ealing Southall made it much more difficult to predict.

While Mr Cameron tries to rally the troops, the Prime Minister will be a contented man as he welcomes his Cabinet colleagues into Chequers next Thursday for what could prove to be a pivotal meeting to map out the Government's political strategy over the coming months.

The case for pressing ahead with a snap election, perhaps as early as this Autumn, will be more compelling than ever for Mr Brown and his ministers as they discuss Labour's options.

The so-called "Brown bounce" has already seen the party building up a healthy lead in the polls - up to seven points according to two surveys at the weekend - and the success in the by-elections will reinforce the growing mood of optimism.

But a Prime Minister famed for his prudence will not rush into a decision just yet. Mr Brown will want to see several months of solid poll leads before he considers risking everything and going to the country to secure his own personal mandate from the British people. Caution will be his byword.

As a doleful Mr Cameron could tell him, a week is a long time in politics.

Cameron suffers in Brown election win double

Telegraph

20 July 2007



Gordon Brown has passed his first big political test by winning two crucial by-elections on what proved to be a night of severe disappointment for David Cameron, the Conservative leader.

Following a fiercely contested campaign, Labour held on to Ealing Southall in London in the early hours of this morning though their majority was cut from 11,440 to just 5,070.

Despite mounting a high-profile campaign - including no fewer than five visits from Mr Cameron - the Conservatives' flamboyant candidate Tony Lit trailed in in third place on 8,230 votes, 1,888 votes behind the Liberal Democrats.

Virendra Sharma, the victorious Labour candidate, said to great cheers from the crowd at Ealing town hall: "This is a great result for our new Prime Minister Gordon Brown and it is a humiliating rebuke from Britain’s most diverse constituency to David Cameron’s Conservatives.

"David Cameron staked his reputation on this by-election and the people of Ealing Southall have given David Cameron their verdict. We do not trust the Tories to represent us. It is policies that win elections, not slick PR."

Labour enjoyed a much more comfortable victory in Sedgefield, the North East constituency held by Tony Blair for nearly a quarter of a century.

Phil Wilson, the Labour candidate and close friend of Mr Blair's, won 12,528 votes - though the party's majority plummeted from 18,449 to just under 7,000.

But there was bad news for Mr Cameron as the Tories slipped into third place on 4,082 votes, with the Lib Dems - who won 5,572 votes - leap-frogging them to finish second. The British National Party finished on just under 2,500.

The results are certain to increase the momentum behind calls for an early election as Cabinet ministers prepare for a crucial political strategy meeting at Chequers next week.

The Prime Minister has been buoyed by recent polls which have shown Labour opening up a seven point lead over the Tories - their biggest in two years.

Labour even managed to hit the psychologically important 40 per cent mark in an ICM poll for The Sunday Telegraph at the weekend.

But the outcomes are a setback for Mr Cameron, who had hoped a strong showing in Ealing Southall would have helped him reassert his authority following the recent row over grammar schools.

The Tory leader took a calculated gamble at the end of last month by choosing Mr Lit as the party's candidate in Ealing Southall, even though the 34-year-old had only joined the party a couple of days earlier.

The Conservative leader has also invested a lot of time in the by-election too and made five separate visits over the last couple of weeks.

The risks were underlined last weekend when it emerged Mr Lit, the former managing director of Sunrise Radio, attended a Labour fundraiser just days before becoming the Tory candidate, with Sunrise paying nearly £5,000 for a table at the event. Mr Lit and his wife Mandy even posed for a photo with Tony Blair, the former Prime Minister.

His disappointment will be intensified by the party's failure to hold on to the second place it clinched in Sedgefield at the last General Election.

In contrast, there will be relief in the Labour high command that the party avoided an unlikely defeat in Ealing Southall, a result which would have brought Mr Brown’s honeymoon in Number 10 to a shuddering halt.

The twin victories will ensure Cabinet ministers are in an upbeat mood when they gather at Chequers next week to thrash out Labour’s political strategy over the coming months.

But there is little doubt that Mr Brown, who is not one of politics' natural risk-takers, will want to see a sustained lead in the polls over the summer months before taking an decision on calling a snap election. The Prime Minister could go to the polls on October 25, before the clocks go back.

Speculation about an Autumn election was fuelled last week when it emerged that Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, is planning to bring forward the Pre-Budget Report from late November or early December and hold it in October.

The move means he can combine it with the Government’s crucial Comprehensive Spending Review, with some MPs predicting that Mr Brown will use the event as a launch-pad for an early election.

However, many at Westminster remain convinced that an election in May or June next year remains the more likely option.

Douglas Alexander, Labour’s general election co-ordinator, inflamed the febrile atmosphere earlier this week by telling ministers that recent polls suggest Mr Cameron could perform as badly as Neil Kinnock in the 1992 general election.

At the same time, Ed Miliband, the Cabinet Office minister and a key Brown ally, has been asked to start preparing an election manifesto.

The results may help ease the pressure on Sir Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, after senior party figures privately warned that a poor performance in this week's by-elections could trigger a leadership election.

Relief for Brown as Labour wins

From The Times

July 20, 2007

Relief for Brown as Labour wins first tests under his leadership

Gordon Brown enjoyed his first taste of victory at the polls as Prime Minister early today as Labour withstood a late Liberal Democrat surge to hold both Ealing Southall and Sedgefield.

The results, with the Tories trailing in third place in both constituencies, was a hammer blow for David Cameron, who tried to use the campaigns to showcase his brand of modern, broad-based Conservatism. The gamble back-fired as it emerged that the Conservative leader’s modernising candidate in Ealing Southall — Tony Lit — attended a Labour fundraising dinner days before being selected.

Mr Cameron’s claims to be tapping into a groundswell of support among Britain Asians in the multiracial constituency also proved unfounded.

Labour’s victories, albeit with reduced majorities, vindicated Mr Brown’s decision to call snap polls after the death last month of the Ealing Southall MP Piara Khabra and Mr Blair’s resignation as MP for Sedgefield. But the fall in the party’s support in Ealing Southall, after a bruising campaign marked by party in-fighting, defections and allegations of dirty tricks, suggests that Mr Brown will look for more sustained evidence that he is ahead nationally before calling a general election.

Far more serious are the repercussions for Mr Cameron, whose party was unable to make inroads into Labour support in a seat where the Tories won control of the local council in spring last year.

The Conservative leader made five visits to Ealing Southall during the by-election and his candidate was described on the ballot paper as “Tony Lit — David Cameron’s Conservatives”.

Mr Lit, who had not even been a party member, was hand-picked to fight the seat in the belief that a handsome young Sikh with local business connections — he ran Sunrise Radio, owned by his father in Southall — would give the party credibility with Asian voters. His photograph beamed down upon voters from countless posters across the constituency, but the Conservatives’ “air war” was not followed up by an effective “ground war” to target and deliver voters.

Although Mr Cameron has already sidelined Francis Maude, his former party chairman whose last act was to pick the party’s candidate for Ealing Southall, a backlash among frustrated Tory traditionalists is inevitable. Recriminations began on the Conservativehome.com website even before this morning’s declaration.

Although the Lib Dems’ strong showing may come as a relief to Sir Menzies Campbell, after speculation of a threat to his leadership of the Liberal Democrats if they fared badly, the vote is further evidence of the party’s formidable by-election team.

Labour, which has a huge local party in Ealing Southall with 1,800 members, was hit by splits and factionalism from the outset after a row over the original plan to choose the next MP from an all-woman shortlist. This process was scrapped on Mr Khabra’s death. When Virendra Sharma, 60, a long-serving if low-profile Labour councillor, was chosen as the candidate, his rival for the nomination, Gurcharan Singh, also an Ealing councillor, defected to the Tories, taking four fellow councillors with him.

Mr Sharma said after the result was announced at 2.25am: “This is a great win for our new Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, and it’s a humiliating rebuke from Britain’s most diverse constituency to David Cameron’s Conservatives.”

Full list of candidates for 19th July

Sedgefield
Stephen Gash, English Democrats
Paul Gittins, Independent
Tim Grainger, Christian Party
Chris Haine, Green Party
Alan Hope, Official Monster Raving Loony Party
Toby Horton, UK Independence Party
Graham Robb, Conservative Party
Norman Scarth, Anti Crime Party
Andrew Spence, British National Party
Greg Stone, Liberal Democrats
Phil Wilson, Labour Party

Ealing Southall
Nigel Bakhai (Liberal Democrat)
John Cartwright (Official Monster Raving Loony)
Sati Chaggar (English Democrats)
Salvinder Dhillon (Respect)
Sarah Edwards (Green)
Kuldeep Grewal (Independent)
Tony Lit (Conservative)
Yaqub Masih (Christian Party)
Jasdev Rai (Independent)
Kunnathur Rajan (UKIP)
Virendra Sharma (Labour)
Gulbash Singh (Independent)

Our prediction for Ealing...

One of the above will be the next MP

Nigel Bakhai (Liberal Democrat) poster

Picture from "A candidate in Ealing" (He knows who he is)

A BIG THANK YOU FROM US FOR HIS HELP

Salvinder Dhillon (Respect) Poster

Picture from "A candidate in Ealing" (He knows who he is)

A BIG THANK YOU FROM US FOR HIS HELP

Yaqub Masih - Christian party

Pictures from "A candidate in Ealing" (He knows who he is)

A BIG THANK YOU FROM US FOR HIS HELP

Jasdev Rai Campaign - Ealing Independent

Pictures from "A candidate in Ealing" (He knows who he is)

A BIG THANK YOU FROM US FOR HIS HELP

Never be satisfied

From: Phil Wilson - Sedgefield Labour candidate



It’s been a privilege to stand for Parliament in my home area. I’ve lost count of the people who’ve told me they remember me from school, or knew my dad from the mines, or who have a shared friend.

The mining tradition is still strong here, and gives us a real sense of community. My father was a miner at Fishburn colliery, and speaking at the unfurling of the new banner for the next door Deaf Hill pit, and marching into the Durham Miner’s Gala alongside miners from nearby Trimdon Grange are memories that will stay with me forever

People who don’t know the area might still associate us only with coal mining, but Sedgefield constituency is a diverse collection of former pit villages, market towns, and the new town, Newton Aycliffe.

I’m proud of what Labour’s achieved here over the last ten years, with new hospitals ringing the constituency, rebuilt schools and a thousand more businesses, but being a reformer and progressive means never, ever, being satisfied with what you’ve got. So I’ve been campaigning on the future- a regenerated town centre for Newton Aycliffe, more opportunities for our young people, and dealing with crime and the fear of crime that haunt so many of our communities.

The campaign itself has been hard fought but generally good natured. The Tory candidate told the local paper that Margaret Thatcher was his inspiration. I’m not sure that’s the right strategy to win votes in Sedgefield!

I’ve been unimpressed by the Lib Dems. Their “local” candidate actually lives, works and votes in Newcastle, and they’ve run the kind of campaign that’s designed to hide what they really stand for, with scare story after scare story. It’s pretty desperate stuff, and not convincing many voters.

I’m looking forward to the election night, and if the people of Sedgefield put their trust in me, I’ll start work right away to deliver investment, jobs and the strong public services our community needs.

Greens on the campaign trail in Ealing

From: The Green Party



Jenny Jones goes leafletting with Sarah Edwards

Jenny Jones joined candidate Sarah Edwards and the Ealing Green team this morning as they leafletted Boston Manor tube station.

Sarah said: "The campaign received a boost today with a visit from Jenny Jones, a London Assembly member for the Greens. People reacted positively to what we had to say, and there seemed to be real interest in Green policies.

"Meeting Jenny helps voters realise what Greens have already achieved for Londoners - including more than £150 million pounds for green initiatives in the Mayor's budget.

"This election campaign has clearly demonstrated how the Green Party is the only party which is serious about tackling climate change and creating a sustainable future

Jenny, a former Deputy Mayor of London, said: "Most people are interested in climate change these days, and most people understand that the only party you can really trust on this is the Greens.

"I would love to see Sarah as the first Green MP. "

Time for one more election walkabout

From: The Northern Echo



IT'S a quarter to noon. The hands on the tower overlooking Newton Aycliffe market say so. But the clock strikes nine, each one ringing out as clear as a bell over the gentle bustle below.

Aycliffe town centre is a curious place. Its peeling paint and boarded-up shops at one end have been condemned by all and sundry in the by-election, but in the sunshine, the market end is positively pleasant.

The upper walkway, painted smartly in Aycliffe aqua blue, felt as reasonable a piece of Sixties planning as one might hope for.

Children cavorted under the little trees in leaf; adults exchanged friendly, familiar greetings with one another. The sweet smell of "Scotch strawbs" (£1 a box) drifted in the heat along with the cry of "Who's next for bath towels at £3 a pair - we're looking to clean up today".

And: "Who's that over there, I recognise him from the telly?"

It's actor John Michie, "DI Robbie Ross" from the crime drama Taggart - "did you say I was looking haggard?" asks a hard-of-hearing husband.

"I finished filming the second episode last night, had a wrap party and was flying down to London and thought I'd stop off here to support Phil Wilson," said John, surrounded by red balloons dancing in the breeze. His silky black drainpipe jeans look to be a cut above those on the stall advertising "any outfit £3".

Graham Robb, the turquoise-rosetted Tory bounces by with all the irrepressible energy of a young puppy. "More Labour hot air," he says, pointing to the balloons.

He's accompanied by Dr Liam Fox, who should, probably, have been pursued by Freda the Fox - someone in a fox suit demanding that hunters be prosecuted for cruelty. Unfortunately for Freda, her quarry had disappeared by the time she arrived and so she tries instead to corner Charles Kennedy.

The Lib Dems organise walkabouts better than any other party. They have huge triangular placards - "superboards" - with "winning here" written on them that shadow their candidate's every move.

"He's really nice, that Charlie Kennedy," says an elderly lady, having been swept into the eye of the Lib Dem storm that swirls like a weather pattern around the market.

The Christian Party candidate hangs languidly out of his shop door, the Ukip candidate strolls in the sunshine, cheerily handing out leaflets. Alan Howling Laud Hope is resplendent in yellow suit and top hat - a loony through and through. His lapel badge says: "A dog is not just for Christmas - save some for Boxing Day".

"I'm campaigning for the endangered sedgewarbler," he says. "He's flown his nest and found a new place to roost in the Middle East." Then he heads for the pub to spend his 99p coin.

"I'm the Anti-Crime Party," says Norman Scarth, 81, "a one-man band, only today there's two of me." A friend has brought along a chair for him to sit on.

A bagpiper in a kilt plays a tune. "I'm here for a party," he says, pausing to fill his pipe. He tries not to say which one. "BNP, I think it is," he says, eventually. "Aye, that's it."

A handful of young men in white shirts hand out anti-war leaflets. They won't say who organised them, where they are from, and direct questions to "the man" whose name they won't give. At the bottom of the leaflet in impossibly small print, it says "BNP".

The clock strikes 11. It's a quarter to two. Thunder rolls in the distance

Northern Echo blocks BNP advert

From: BNP Website



Yesterday the BNP successfully got its message across to the tens of thousands of readers of the Darlington based Northern Echo which covers most of the Sedgefield constituency.

A £600 advert was placed in the paper in the run up to tomorrow’s parliamentary by-election.

Instead of accepting the advert as part of that newspaper’s obligation to inform the electorate fairly about all the candidates contesting the by-election the editor, Peter Barron, felt compelled to write a hand wringing apology to the paper’s readers offering self-congratulatory praise that “The Northern Echo has a proud tradition of campaigning for freedom of opinion” and suggesting that to refuse the BNP advert would be tantamount to descending “…into the sinister darkness of censorship”.

Sedgefield Byelection set to close to the wire!

From: Sedgefield Lib Dems



Greg Stone and Sedgefield Liberal Democrats are spending a busy final day campaigning before the polls open at 7am tomorrow. It is clear that it is a straight fight between Greg Stone and Labour's London-based spin doctor and it is close. Over 300 supporters have flocked to the constituency in a big finish to the campaign.

Greg said, "It has been a privilege to meet so many friendly people over the last 3 weeks. More and more people are saying that it's time for a positive change - it's time to end Labour neglect. Residents were wondering whether Labour would have anything positive to say in this election. The answer is an emphatic NO. Their lies and deceit have done politics no favours and our positive campaign reinforces the fact that here in the North we are the only challengers to Labour."

Visitors in the campaign include Sir Menzies Campbell MP, Charles Kennedy MP, Nick Clegg MP, Chris Huhne MP and Gordon Brown's MP - Willie Rennie and many more senior Lib Dem MPs. Issues have included falling police numbers, rising crime, the neglect of areas like Ferryhill, Chilton, Newton Aycliffe and many other areas. Labour's neglect of the NHS has also been a central issue, especially the dilapidated health centre and potential cuts at Bishop Auckland Hospital.

Greg said, "Labour's track record of by-election promises is not impressive. We remember when they accused us of scaremongering about the threat to hospital services during the Hartlepool election a few years ago. Tony Blair promised that Hartlepool Hospital would stay open... It's being closed. When the votes are counted there is only 2 possible outcomes. Either a Lib Dem MP who will work for you full time and work to end decades of Labour neglect. Or a nasty Labour, London based spin doctor who has nothing positive to say."

Vote Yaqub Masih - Ealing Southall

Ealing Southall

From: The Christian Party


My pledge to you...

I will promote goodwill to all people regard-less of race or creed.

I will seek to bring about a compassionate approach to legitimate asylum seekers.

I will call for the end to the 40 year abortion holocaust and campaign for the recognition of the Human Rights of the unborn child

YAQUB MASIH

My top priority is to defend our children from the corruption that they suffer under the current political leadership. No major political party has stood against the breakdown of morals in our society, and come to the defence of the traditional family. I will fight to re-establish traditional godly values in our community.

Children’s innocent minds are being corrupted by inappropriate sex education. Schools are promoting abortions for our daughters without our knowledge or parental consent. I will campaign to stop this.

I want to see our children once again taught to respect their elders, love and care for their parents in their old age. Be gainfully employed and respected in society. Marry and be faithful husbands, wives and parents themselves.

Above all I want our children to learn about God, so that they might know Him, love Him, have faith in Him, and know that He loves and values them.

Last Updated ( Saturday, 14 July 2007 )

Tim Grainger - Restoring Faith and Hope in Sedgefield

Sedgefield

From: The Christian Party



My pledge to you...

■ I will fight to re-establish traditional family values, and all that enhances peoples lives. See Deuteronomy 30:19)

■ I will seek improvements in our Criminal Justice system recognising that liberal laws do nothing to deal with offenders. Criminals must pay a penalty and then be
re-habilitated before re-entering society.
(See Roman 13: 1-4)

■ I will call for the end to the 40 year abortion holocaust and campaign for the recognition of the Human Rights of the unborn child
(See Psalm139:13-15)

LABOUR TO LEGALISE FRANKENSTEIN NIGHTMARE


Sadly part of Tony Blair’s Legacy is The Human Tissues and Embryos (Draft) Bill WHICH IS A THREAT TO THE FAMILY, TO LIFE AND TO HUMANITY ITSELF.

I will oppose this Bill. It is a threat to the family because it removes the need for IVF children to have a Father. It is a threat to life because it effectively gives scientists a free rein to do anything and everything with the human embryo. It is a threat to humanity because it strikes at the very nature of human life as made in the image of God by the creation of Animal-Human hybrids.

CHRISTIANITY UNDER THREAT

We now live In a society where a school-girl is vilified for wearing a ring that shows her commitment to chastity before marriage. The basic freedoms of Christian Student Unions are being threatened. I believe that Christians should be allowed to freely manifest and exercise their faith. The truth is that it is Christianity that has given our country peace, freedom, prosperity, justice, democracy and world leadership.

Election hots up

Ealing Southall

From: Ealing Times

A BUSY weekend of electioneering saw new accusations levelled at Tory election candidate Tony Lit as the Ealing-Southall by-election enters the final stages.

It emerged over the weekend that Mr Lit had attended a Labour fundraiser for Asian business people and sat at a table that cost his company, Sunrise radio, £4,800.

Mr Lit claimed he attended the function, where he was photographed with the former Prime Minister Tony Blair, in his official capacity as chief executive of Sunrise radio.

Mr Lit said: "As a businessman, I did indeed attend this event for the asian business community.

"Like many British asians I feel the Labour Government does not have the answers to the challenges that currently face the country."

Mr Lit also denied signing any cheques or making a personal donation to Labour.

The Liberal Democrat Chief Executive Lord Rennard said: "This news is yet another blow to a beleaguered Conservative campaign.

"Their candidate has been revealed as a Labour donor and perhaps the Conservatives will be relieved that he cannot win the by-election.

"One has to wonder just what questions were asked before the Conservatives invited Mr Lit to become 'David Cameron's Conservative candidate'".

Past and present Liberal Democrat leaders also descended on Ealing Broadway on Monday this week to back their man Nigel Bakhai.

Paddy Ashdown and current party chief Sir Menzies Campbell were on a walkabout on promoting their push for what would be a key seat for them.

Labour enlisted the help of yet another cabinet member in the form of Ruth Kelly the Transport minister.

Ms Kelly joined candidate Virendra Sharma at Ealing Broadway station on Friday at rush hour to talk to commuters about transport problems in the area.

Ms Kelly said: "I have been listening very carefully to what the commuters and Virendra have been telling me about transport problems locally."

Mr Sharma added: "I've asked Ruth Kelly to look into what can be done to speed up improvements to the District and Central lines."

"We are entitled to a decent service and at the moment it's just not good enough."

Not to be outdone the Respect party enlisted the help of MP George Galloway, to address a meeting above the TKC restaurant in Southall Broadway on Sunday.

The former Celebrity Big Brother star was apparently mobbed by supporters taking photo's on their mobile phones as he walked to the meeting.

He reiterated his claim that: "Salvinder Dhillon will be your man in Westmister, not Westminster's man in Ealing Southall.

"He has all the experience, skill and integrity necessary to deserve and win your respect on 19 July."

Campbell: Bakhai is neck and neck with Labour

Ealing southall

From: Ealing Lib Dems



Leader of the Liberal Democrats Menzies Campbell today visited Ealing Southall for the seventh time and declared that the Liberal Democrats are neck and neck with Labour.

Liberal Democrat Leader Ming Campbell, said:

"In the last few weeks momentum has been building behind Nigel Bakhai as people back the local choice.

"As we enter the final stretch, it's neck and neck between the Liberal Democrats and Labour.

"Recent revelations have sent the Conservative campaign into free-fall. Senior Conservatives have admitted they cannot win.

"People here want an alternative to Labour's neglect. They know that backing Nigel is the only way to get it."

Southall By-Election Nears

Ealing Southall

From: Playing Against The Spin

Accusations of links to overseas separatist organisations, affiliations with genocidal regimes, foreign fascist organisations, defections, Sikh puritanism, donations to rival political parties and tacky Asian radio stations.

What doesn’t this by-election have?

A Southall resident told me that she wouldn’t be surprised if a drive-by shooting takes place in Southall in relation to this Thursday’s election.

It is very much a campaign of polarities, and nowhere more has this been evidenced than on the internet.

On the one hand we have diehard liberals such as Sunny Hundal and his cronies accusing pretty much every Sikh involved of being a theocratic monster whose ultimate goal is the establishment of a Sikh State.

On the other hand we have had The Sikh Federation and their cohorts spamming blogs and message boards with calls for a ‘visible turbaned Sikh’ to be put forward by New Labour.

And today new videos have emerged on YouTube accusing Labour candidate Virendra Kumar Sharma of having links with the 1984 genocide of Sikhs in India and the more recent desecration of the Babri Masjid in Ayodyha.

This is an election in which the Sikh vote is crucial.

But which way will it swing?

It is not as simple an answer as in previous elections, where Labour were expected to bag the vast majority of Sikh votes.

Although there are an innumerable set of social, religious and political differences that separate the Sikh vote, all of which would require a detailed analyses, the vote can be broadly split in to four blocks:

1 Punjabi Sikh vote – majority will probably vote Labour.
2 Afghan Sikh vote – they are rapidly becoming a force in Southall, but their vote is uncertain.
3 Gurdwara endorsement Sikh vote – some Gurdwaras are backing Sharma, but their clout is negligible.
4 Traditional Sikh vote for Labour – this has to have taken a blow with the defections of so many Councillors.

The successful candidate will, in my opinion, have to woo numbers 1, 2 and 4.

Although some people are predicting a comfortable Labour win, the Independents may see some success, especially Jasdev Singh Rai. Although an Independent is highly unlikely to win, the votes they snatch from Labour will give the Tories, who have posited a now disgraced Tony Lit as candidate, a boost.

With Sharma being vilified and Lit shooting himself in the head, all is up for grabs.